APA Dictionary of Psychology

prior distribution

Updated on 04/19/2018
a probability distribution of possible values for an unknown population characteristic that is formulated before one obtains any current data observations about the phenomenon of interest. It may be a subjective prior (based on a researcher’s knowledge of the specific field) or an objective prior (based on evidence obtained from other studies). In Bayesian methods, the prior distribution is combined with the likelihood function to yield the posterior distribution from which inferences are made.
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